A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
